All Eyes on the Fed, Jobs, and GDP as July Ends With a Bang

The Week Ahead: Week of July 21, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
With July drawing to a close, markets enter a crucial stretch where central bank policy updates and high-impact labor data converge. Wednesday brings a pivotal day, with the Fed, BoJ, and BoC all announcing rate decisions within hours of each other. Although no major changes are expected, the tone of forward guidance will shape investor sentiment heading into August.

Meanwhile, key reads on U.S. GDP, JOLTS, ADP, and payrolls will offer the most comprehensive snapshot yet of economic momentum heading into Q3. Inflation pressures will also be in focus, with German CPI and the U.S. Core PCE—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—due Thursday. With conflicting signals from recent PMI surveys and consumer confidence data, the week ahead may bring clarity—or confusion—for markets grappling with diverging economic narratives.

Key Events to Watch:

Tuesday, July 29 – 17:00
JOLTS Job Openings (Jun)
Previous: 7.76M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
June’s JOLTS report will be closely tracked for signs of further softening in labor demand. While job openings have edged lower from early 2024 highs, they remain elevated by historical standards. A drop below 7.5 million could suggest more pronounced easing in the labor market, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious tone and influencing expectations around the timing of future policy moves.

Wednesday, July 30 – 08:00
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Previous: 0.50% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Bank of Japan is expected to hold interest rates steady at 0.50% amid lingering yen weakness and fragile domestic demand. With little scope for near-term tightening, attention will turn to the Bank’s commentary on currency volatility and possible tweaks to asset purchase programs. Any hawkish tone or signal of policy normalization could trigger a sharp reaction in JPY crosses.

Wednesday, July 30 – 15:15
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul)
Previous: -33K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Markets will closely scrutinize the ADP employment report after June’s unexpected decline of 33K. July’s figure will help investors assess labor market dynamics ahead of the official Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. A weak print may heighten concerns of a broader employment slowdown, while a strong rebound could signal continued hiring strength despite tightening financial conditions.

Wednesday, July 30 – 15:30
GDP QoQ (Q2, advance)
Previous: -0.5%| Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The U.S. economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.5% in Q1, dragged by weaker private investment and a sharp deceleration in inventory build-up. The first look at Q2 GDP will be critical for shaping growth expectations into the second half. Any positive surprise may help alleviate recession concerns and support the Fed’s patient stance on rate cuts, while another contraction would confirm technical recession territory—potentially triggering risk aversion across equities and currency markets.

Wednesday, July 30 – 18:45
BoC Interest Rate Decision
Previous: 2.75% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
With inflation continuing to ease in Canada, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged. However, markets will pay close attention to any signals about when the central bank may begin cutting rates. A dovish tone could pressure the Canadian dollar, especially if paired with weak domestic data.

Wednesday, July 30 – 21:00
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Previous: 4.50% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
No change is expected, but the FOMC statement and Powell’s press briefing will be closely parsed. If language shifts toward “sustained progress” on inflation, dovish speculation could gain steam. However, any hawkish pushback may roil equities.

Thursday, July 31 – 15:00
German CPI MoM (Jul, prelim)
Previous: 0.0% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
German consumer prices remained flat on a monthly basis in June, reflecting subdued energy inflation and softer services pricing. July’s preliminary CPI will be closely watched as markets assess whether inflation is showing signs of reacceleration or continued normalization. A hotter-than-expected print could raise speculation of ECB policy caution, while subdued price pressures would strengthen the case for easing later in the year—especially amid persistent weakness in German growth indicators.

Thursday, July 31 – 15:30
Core PCE Price Index (MoM/YoY, Jun)
MoM Previous: 0.2% | YoY Previous: 2.7% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and markets will scrutinize it closely. A soft print—especially below 0.2% MoM—would validate dovish positioning. A hotter reading may delay easing and weigh on bonds.

Friday, August 1 – 12:00
Eurozone CPI YoY (Jul, flash)
Previous: 2.0% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Eurozone’s flash CPI will help determine whether disinflation is broadening. Headline inflation is hovering at 2.0%, but core measures remain sticky. A move below 2% would reinforce ECB rate-cut expectations, while a firm reading could complicate policy discussions.

Friday, August 1 – 15:30
Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jul)
Previous: 0.2% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Wage growth remains a critical input for the Fed’s inflation outlook. July’s figure will signal whether labor cost pressures are abating. A strong reading may push back market expectations for cuts, while a soft figure could support dovish sentiment.

Friday, August 1 – 15:30
Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)
Previous: 147K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The U.S. added just 147,000 jobs in June, a weaker-than-expected print that reinforced signs of labor market deceleration. July’s report will serve as a key test for the Fed’s soft-landing narrative. A significant downside miss could revive calls for earlier policy easing, particularly if wage growth also cools. However, a strong rebound would challenge dovish bets and provide the Fed with justification to hold rates steady. Volatility in the dollar and equities may rise sharply on surprise outcomes.

Friday, August 1 – 15:30
Unemployment Rate (Jul)
Previous: 4.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
A rise in the unemployment rate could indicate rising slack in the labor market. Markets are likely to cheer a stable print around 4%, but any move toward 4.3% may shift Fed expectations quickly.